Three million refugees and migrants could arrive in Europe by the end of 2017, the European Commission says in its economic forecast for the fall of 2015.
The report says the newcomers will have a “relatively small” economic impact in the medium term, with GDP rising between 0.2 percent and 0.3 percent above the baseline by 2020. But, the EC notes, that could vary by country—with destination countries—such as Germany—seeing a more significant impact than transit countries. Here’s more:
The impact from higher public spending and a larger labour force with a skillset similar to the existing one in the EU is expected to: − contribute to a small increase in the level of GDP this year and next, compared to a baseline scenario, rising to about ¼% by 2017. This however is less than the rise in the underlying population, implying a small, negative impact on GDP per capita throughout the period; and − strengthening the outlook for employment (which is expected to improve gradually to about 0.3% more employed persons by 2017), in part from a wage response.
The EC reports points out that, typically, non-EU migrants typically receive less in individual benefits than they contribute in taxes and social contributions. And their employment is the most important factor of net fiscal contribution.